Annual Production Can Be a Trap Under NEM 3.0

In California, annual production is no longer the key number. Seasonal timing and self-use matter far more.

If a salesperson in California still leads with annual production, be cautious. Under NEM 3.0, exported power no longer offsets imported power at anything close to one-to-one value.

Summer overproduction cannot simply be treated like winter savings. What matters now is winter output, summer output, and how production lines up with your real seasonal load profile.

Average annual numbers are attractive because they hide seasonal mismatch. A serious analysis has to look at timing, battery behavior, and the actual shape of household demand.